Mexican Kennel Club
2025 Season
Week
15
Last scored: Week
14
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 9
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 9
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
PBR100
|
7-2
5 games left
|
1238.2
|
99.9%
83.3% bye
|
10.6
(7-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
alexkeisner
|
7-2
5 games left
|
1231.2
|
99.1%
55.9% bye
|
10.4
(7-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
szelnick
|
6-2-1
5 games left
|
1170.7
|
91.3%
17.6% bye
|
9.3
(6-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
jlowengrub
|
6-3
5 games left
|
1256.4
|
97.4%
38.2% bye
|
9.5
(6-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
sj80
|
6-3
5 games left
|
1095.8
|
61.7%
2.7% bye
|
9.3
(6-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
howufiger7
|
5-4
5 games left
|
1158.3
|
67.1%
1.3% bye
|
8.2
(5-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
topolho
|
4-5
5 games left
|
1219.5
|
44.9%
1.0% bye
|
6.9
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
Tommybeans
|
4-5
5 games left
|
1127.2
|
24.3%
|
7.1
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
suremanatr
|
4-5
5 games left
|
1103.8
|
14.3%
0.0% bye
|
6.3
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
RobMulhall
|
2-7
5 games left
|
941.3
|
0.0%
|
3.4
(2-7)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
zafiro
|
1-7-1
5 games left
|
1016.6
|
0.0%
|
3.3
(1-6)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
likelyBillyD
|
1-8
5 games left
|
967.4
|
0.0%
|
2.3
(1-6)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
PBR100
7-2 • 5 left
99.9%
playoff
10.6
proj wins
1238.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
53.7%
Seed 2:
29.6%
Seed 3:
11.4%
Seed 4:
3.6%
Seed 5:
1.3%
Seed 6:
0.3%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
alexkeisner
7-2 • 5 left
99.1%
playoff
10.4
proj wins
1231.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
25.4%
Seed 2:
30.5%
Seed 3:
23.8%
Seed 4:
12.2%
Seed 5:
5.0%
Seed 6:
2.2%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
szelnick
6-2-1 • 5 left
91.3%
playoff
9.3
proj wins
1170.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
6.3%
Seed 2:
11.2%
Seed 3:
20.4%
Seed 4:
21.7%
Seed 5:
19.8%
Seed 6:
11.8%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
jlowengrub
6-3 • 5 left
97.4%
playoff
9.5
proj wins
1256.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
13.7%
Seed 2:
24.5%
Seed 3:
27.6%
Seed 4:
17.0%
Seed 5:
9.8%
Seed 6:
4.8%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
sj80
6-3 • 5 left
61.7%
playoff
9.3
proj wins
1095.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.7%
Seed 2:
2.0%
Seed 3:
6.7%
Seed 4:
15.7%
Seed 5:
17.0%
Seed 6:
19.6%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
howufiger7
5-4 • 5 left
67.1%
playoff
8.2
proj wins
1158.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
1.2%
Seed 3:
5.4%
Seed 4:
17.2%
Seed 5:
22.1%
Seed 6:
21.1%
Magic Number
4 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
topolho
4-5 • 5 left
44.9%
playoff
6.9
proj wins
1219.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.9%
Seed 3:
3.8%
Seed 4:
7.9%
Seed 5:
13.9%
Seed 6:
18.4%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(15.3% chance)
• You must win 2 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• RobMulhall must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 37.0 points
• szelnick: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 48.8)
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 123.7)
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 61.2)
• Tommybeans: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 92.3)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 115.7)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 278.2)
• zafiro: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 203.0)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 252.1)
7-7
(13.4% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 18.8 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 11.7 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 37.0 points
• szelnick: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 48.8)
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 123.7)
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 61.2)
• Tommybeans: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 92.3)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 115.7)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 278.2)
8-6
(8.8% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 18.8 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 11.7 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 37.0 points
• szelnick: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 48.8)
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 123.7)
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 61.2)
• Tommybeans: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 92.3)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 115.7)
9-5
(7.4% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 18.8 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 11.7 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 37.0 points
• szelnick: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 48.8)
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 123.7)
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 61.2)
• Tommybeans: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 92.3)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 115.7)
8
Tommybeans
4-5 • 5 left
24.3%
playoff
7.1
proj wins
1127.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.5%
Seed 4:
3.2%
Seed 5:
7.0%
Seed 6:
13.6%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(8.3% chance)
• You must win 2 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• RobMulhall must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 129.3 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 43.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 31.4)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.2 points
• topolho: outscore them by 92.4 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 23.4)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 185.9)
• zafiro: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 110.6)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 159.8)
7-7
(7.2% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 111.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 104.1 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 129.3 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 43.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 31.4)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.2 points
• topolho: outscore them by 92.4 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 23.4)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 185.9)
8-6
(4.8% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 111.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 104.1 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 129.3 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 43.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 31.4)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.2 points
• topolho: outscore them by 92.4 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 23.4)
9-5
(4.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 111.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 104.1 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 129.3 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 43.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 31.4)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.2 points
• topolho: outscore them by 92.4 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 23.4)
9
suremanatr
4-5 • 5 left
14.3%
playoff
6.3
proj wins
1103.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.4%
Seed 4:
1.6%
Seed 5:
4.2%
Seed 6:
8.2%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(4.9% chance)
• You must win 2 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• RobMulhall must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.7 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 67.0 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 54.6 points
• topolho: outscore them by 115.8 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 23.5 points
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 162.5)
• zafiro: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 87.2)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 136.4)
7-7
(4.3% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 134.5 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 127.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.7 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 67.0 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 54.6 points
• topolho: outscore them by 115.8 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 23.5 points
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 162.5)
8-6
(2.8% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 134.5 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 127.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.7 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 67.0 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 54.6 points
• topolho: outscore them by 115.8 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 23.5 points
9-5
(2.4% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 134.5 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 127.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.7 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 67.0 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• howufiger7: outscore them by 54.6 points
• topolho: outscore them by 115.8 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 23.5 points
10
RobMulhall
2-7 • 5 left
0.0%
playoff
3.4
proj wins
941.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 315.2 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 229.5 points
• sj80: outscore them by 154.6 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 217.1 points
• topolho: outscore them by 278.3 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 186.0 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 162.6 points
• zafiro: outscore them by 75.3 points
• likelyBillyD: outscore them by 26.2 points
7-7
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 297.0 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 289.9 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 315.2 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 229.5 points
• sj80: outscore them by 154.6 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 217.1 points
• topolho: outscore them by 278.3 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 186.0 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 162.6 points
11
zafiro
1-7-1 • 5 left
0.0%
playoff
3.3
proj wins
1016.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Playoff Scenarios
6-7
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• RobMulhall must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 239.9 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 154.3 points
• sj80: outscore them by 79.4 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 141.9 points
• topolho: outscore them by 203.1 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 110.7 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 87.3 points
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.2)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.2)
12
likelyBillyD
1-8 • 5 left
0.0%
playoff
2.3
proj wins
967.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• howufiger7 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• RobMulhall must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 289.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 203.4 points
• sj80: outscore them by 128.5 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 191.0 points
• topolho: outscore them by 252.2 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 159.9 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 136.5 points
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 26.1)
• zafiro: outscore them by 49.3 points
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.