Mexican Kennel Club
2025 Season
Week
15
Last scored: Week
14
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 10
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 10
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
PBR100
|
8-2
4 games left
|
1341.9
|
100.0%
84.9% bye
|
10.8
(8-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
szelnick
|
7-2-1
4 games left
|
1345.6
|
97.6%
35.1% bye
|
10.1
(7-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
jlowengrub
|
7-3
4 games left
|
1403.6
|
99.6%
51.3% bye
|
9.9
(7-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
alexkeisner
|
7-3
4 games left
|
1340.0
|
98.3%
27.8% bye
|
9.2
(7-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
sj80
|
6-4
4 games left
|
1185.3
|
36.5%
0.3% bye
|
8.1
(6-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
topolho
|
5-5
4 games left
|
1354.1
|
68.5%
0.6% bye
|
7.8
(5-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
Tommybeans
|
5-5
4 games left
|
1260.5
|
44.0%
0.0% bye
|
7.6
(5-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
howufiger7
|
5-5
4 games left
|
1251.5
|
45.5%
|
7.0
(5-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
suremanatr
|
4-6
4 games left
|
1220.6
|
9.9%
|
5.9
(4-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
likelyBillyD
|
2-8
4 games left
|
1077.0
|
0.0%
|
3.5
(2-6)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
RobMulhall
|
2-8
4 games left
|
1049.9
|
0.0%
|
3.1
(2-6)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
zafiro
|
1-8-1
4 games left
|
1141.3
|
0.0%
|
2.9
(1-5)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
PBR100
8-2 • 4 left
100.0%
playoff
10.8
proj wins
1341.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
56.8%
Seed 2:
28.1%
Seed 3:
11.2%
Seed 4:
3.4%
Seed 5:
0.4%
Seed 6:
0.1%
Magic Number
1 win
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
szelnick
7-2-1 • 4 left
97.6%
playoff
10.1
proj wins
1345.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
13.4%
Seed 2:
21.7%
Seed 3:
26.3%
Seed 4:
20.8%
Seed 5:
10.4%
Seed 6:
4.9%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
jlowengrub
7-3 • 4 left
99.6%
playoff
9.9
proj wins
1403.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
20.3%
Seed 2:
31.0%
Seed 3:
26.1%
Seed 4:
15.4%
Seed 5:
5.3%
Seed 6:
1.5%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
alexkeisner
7-3 • 4 left
98.3%
playoff
9.2
proj wins
1340.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
9.5%
Seed 2:
18.3%
Seed 3:
27.8%
Seed 4:
27.3%
Seed 5:
11.0%
Seed 6:
4.4%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
sj80
6-4 • 4 left
36.5%
playoff
8.1
proj wins
1185.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.3%
Seed 3:
1.7%
Seed 4:
6.2%
Seed 5:
11.4%
Seed 6:
16.9%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
topolho
5-5 • 4 left
68.5%
playoff
7.8
proj wins
1354.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.6%
Seed 3:
5.5%
Seed 4:
14.0%
Seed 5:
25.6%
Seed 6:
22.8%
Magic Number
4 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
Tommybeans
5-5 • 4 left
44.0%
playoff
7.6
proj wins
1260.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.8%
Seed 4:
6.1%
Seed 5:
14.9%
Seed 6:
22.1%
Magic Number
4 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(14.9% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 143.2 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 85.2 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 79.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 93.7 points
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.0)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 39.9)
6-8
(11.9% chance)
• You must win 1 of 4 remaining games
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 93.7 points
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.0)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 39.9)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 183.5)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 210.6)
8-6
(9.6% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 81.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 143.2 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 85.2 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 79.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 93.7 points
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.0)
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 39.9)
9-5
(7.6% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 81.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 143.2 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 85.2 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 79.6 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 93.7 points
• howufiger7: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.0)
8
howufiger7
5-5 • 4 left
45.5%
playoff
7.0
proj wins
1251.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.5%
Seed 4:
6.8%
Seed 5:
17.5%
Seed 6:
20.8%
Magic Number
4 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(15.4% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 94.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 88.5 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 102.7 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 9.1 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.9)
6-8
(12.3% chance)
• You must win 1 of 4 remaining games
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 102.7 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 9.1 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.9)
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 174.6)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 201.6)
8-6
(10.0% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 90.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 94.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 88.5 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 102.7 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 9.1 points
• suremanatr: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.9)
9-5
(7.9% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• PBR100 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• jlowengrub must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 90.5 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 152.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 94.1 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 88.5 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.2)
• topolho: outscore them by 102.7 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 9.1 points
9
suremanatr
4-6 • 4 left
9.9%
playoff
5.9
proj wins
1220.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.2%
Seed 5:
3.4%
Seed 6:
6.3%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(4.7% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.3)
• topolho: outscore them by 133.6 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 40.0 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.0 points
• likelyBillyD: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 143.6)
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 170.7)
7-7
(3.2% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• sj80 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 183.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 125.0 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 119.5 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.3)
• topolho: outscore them by 133.6 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 40.0 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.0 points
8-6
(2.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• jlowengrub must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• szelnick must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• alexkeisner must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• sj80 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• topolho must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PBR100: outscore them by 121.4 points
• jlowengrub: outscore them by 183.1 points
• szelnick: outscore them by 125.0 points
• alexkeisner: outscore them by 119.5 points
• sj80: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.3)
• topolho: outscore them by 133.6 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 40.0 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 31.0 points
10
likelyBillyD
2-8 • 4 left
0.0%
playoff
3.5
proj wins
1077.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80: outscore them by 108.4 points
• topolho: outscore them by 277.2 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 183.6 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 174.7 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 143.7 points
• RobMulhall: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
11
RobMulhall
2-8 • 4 left
0.0%
playoff
3.1
proj wins
1049.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• topolho must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• Tommybeans must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• howufiger7 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• suremanatr must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• sj80: outscore them by 135.5 points
• topolho: outscore them by 304.3 points
• Tommybeans: outscore them by 210.7 points
• howufiger7: outscore them by 201.7 points
• suremanatr: outscore them by 170.8 points
• likelyBillyD: outscore them by 27.2 points
12
zafiro
1-8-1 • 4 left
0.0%
playoff
2.9
proj wins
1141.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.